10  Optimal sampling methods 🚧

Learning objectives

After reading this chapter, you should be able to:

• Apply sampling techniques to generate synthetic event sets
• Use importance and stratified sampling to improve efficiency in hazard modeling
• Evaluate how sampling choices affect estimates of extreme risk
• Balance computational cost vs accuracy in climate risk estimation

10.1 Essential sampling concepts

1. Monte Carlo sampling and variance reduction
2. Importance sampling for rare events
3. Stratified sampling strategies
4. Synthetic event generation methods
5. Computational efficiency optimization

Further reading