11  Global sensitivity analysis 🚧

Learning objectives

After reading this chapter, you should be able to:

  • Understand the role of sensitivity analysis in climate risk modeling
  • Apply variance-based sensitivity methods (Sobol indices) to identify key parameters
  • Use Morris screening methods for initial parameter importance ranking
  • Interpret sensitivity analysis results for model simplification and uncertainty reduction

11.1 Essential sensitivity analysis concepts

  1. Global vs local sensitivity analysis approaches
  2. Sobol indices and variance decomposition
  3. Morris elementary effects for screening
  4. Multi-model sensitivity analysis
  5. Implementation strategies for complex model chains

Further reading

For global sensitivity analysis:

  • Saltelli et al. (2008): Comprehensive introduction to GSA methods
  • Herman and Usher (2017): Practical implementation guide with software tools