16 Deep Uncertainty and Model Structure đ§
See first
This chapter builds on concepts from: - Probability and Statistics - Model Validation and Comparison
Learning objectives
- Distinguish between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in climate risk assessment
- Understand the challenges posed by structural uncertainty and model disagreement
- Apply Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and stacking approaches to combine multiple models
- Recognize when deep uncertainty invalidates traditional decision frameworks
- Identify sources of deep uncertainty in exposure and impact modeling